How will model prices be affected after brexit?

[FendtFarmer]

As the title says really, meant as a good discussion so be nice if it could be keep politics free...

[0025]

Personally I don't think second hand stuff I'll be affected, but wouldn't be surprised if new ones did at a. Steeper rate. 

[SPN]

Brexit is the definition of "political".

It can't really be discussed without addressing the political element.

 

[chris.watson]

Not everything that comes into the country under world trade tariffs will have a massive duty.  can’t see a run of 2000 limited edition models changing the trade landscape if I am honest.

[mb86]

25 minutes ago, chris.watson said:

Not everything that comes into the country under world trade tariffs will have a massive duty.  can’t see a run of 2000 limited edition models changing the trade landscape if I am honest.

Oh I don't know, the way some of the prices are heading it would be a major trade deal for the UK. 

[Janval]

Since you've been a part of the EU I guess you haven't had any customs fees or VAT on import jacking up the prices? (Correct me if I'm wrong!) Might be a bit off topic, but Norway is not a member of the EU. We are however very much part of the EEA. As a part of that deal we follow most of the directions a EU nation follows, so in theory we're basically a part of it without actually being it. Meaning we don't get any of the trade benefits. 

As stated, I don't know how this works in the UK today, I'm just assuming. But if I'm right, and the UK government decides to place a limit to any abroad purchases/imports (Let's say £35 which is more or less the limit in Norway), that makes all the difference. Every purchase I make above that price (including shipping) means the package will be subject to a mandatory customs check (add at least £15 for that) and then on top of it I would have to pay 25% VAT. 

So, a £40 purchase would then rise to just under £70 pretty quickly, and that number just keeps on rising the more expensive the item is. Mind you that they are also permitted to do random check ups on shipments just in case someone is trying to cheat the system, in that case they will bill you anyways and it's up to you to file a complaint and prove them wrong.

This is basically why I have to try bargain hunting for the most part. However, I could of course find models cheaper abroad despite all this. 

So if this is the future scenario in the UK, I feel for you

[chris.watson]

As most of the models we buy come from China, we already pay import duty. I am not going to bore everyone with details, but my wife works at a cargo hub for China southern airlines, and she does the paperwork for the customs entries. Believe me there is already import duty being charged.

[b_emmons]

I already import some stuff so quite used to custom fees and added VAT/Charges, and most items can work out cheaper than buying from the EU  

[Janval]

Of course, but even though it's already been imported with charges to, let's say France, and I buy it from a shop there - Then I will have to pay new import charges from France to Norway as well. Is that also the case in the UK pre-brexit? 

[SPN]

Nobody knows yet what Brexit will actually mean in practical terms.

What we do know is that (most probably) there will not be MEPs from the UK (although Northern Ireland might still have one), there will not be a Commissioner from the UK, and UK Ministers will not have seats at the Council of Ministers.

Economically the options range from WTO rules (which will destroy manufacturing in the UK) to something very close to what we have today (which will make the extreme Brexiteers heads'explode).

From a collectors perspective, there are two possible negative impacts - the value of Sterling collapses, which drives up import prices, and/or tariffs and duties get applied above and beyond those in place today (the problem you have in Norway).

We can only hope that common sense prevails.

[FendtFarmer]

Do most of the suppliers in this country buy direct from China? Or dosent that count as companies like wiking, universal hobbies are eu based?

 

[GPS]

All very good comments that I would agree with. There are two factors that will predominantly affect price....tariffs and exchange rate. 

As most manufacturing takes place in Asia ( I assume mainly China), then import duties are paid when the models are imported, no change to today, and that is already in the price you pay. What we don’t have today is any further import duty from the EU to UK.....free trade agreement. Will that change after Brexit ....that is the current question. As Janval says in the Norway situation, if tariffs are put in place, we will have an extra cost.

Exchange rate is the other factor. Models already cost us more since the original vote, you don’t get as many euros to the pound. As SPN says, it could get worse unless sense prevails!

What I would say in addition to all the above, is that markets hate uncertainty...that means risk and risk has to be compensated for. The sooner a plan can be agreed, good or bad (depending which side you look at it from!) , the sooner the uncertainty is removed.

I certainly don’t speak as an expert, but I do have to attend a monthly internal Brexit risk meeting .....65% of what of what my company makes is exported, a lot to the EU. Actually, we also now have to cover US import tariffs in the same meeting! It’s all about risk!!